How to face the problem of economic downturn? How will the effectiveness of active policy be? What is the impact of the current macro economic situation on the real estate industry? If the related policy of the real estate industry will be relaxed?العربيةSinoeast
According to a report, we know that, at present, China’s macro economy faces three major difficulties, which will point to four key words in the real estate industry: slow cycle, stable expectation, rebalancing, and reconstruction of ecology. The report believes that in the short and medium term, risk management and control are still the primary concern at present. It is necessary to prevent overheating and prevent excessive cold. It is difficult for real estate to return to the era of economic high growth. In the next 10 years, it is difficult for real estate to return to the era of rapid growth. Domestic housing development will be slow or even negative increase.
The three major economic problems will inevitably have an impact on the real estate industry.
- In 2019, it still faces downward pressure from the international market. Looking back at the domestic economic development trend in the past decade, we can think that the L-type economy has not been established. The three major economic engines of investment, consumption and export were sluggish. In 2018, the growth rate of the three traditional investment sectors of manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate development showed a downward trend for a medium and long term, and the economic impact was not optimistic.
- The difficulty of risk management is increasing.Sinoeast日本語 Various risk events have occurred one after another. The difficulty of implementing risk management and control, including the three dimensions of currency scale, economic scale and property market scale, is constantly increasing. Monetary growth was suppressed in 2018, which was a drag for economic performance, but monetary efficiency and high leverage did not support the continued rapid growth of the currency. The contradiction lies in the fact that both the domestic and foreign economies face major challenges in the current situation, and it is difficult to boost the economy without a sufficient amount of currency. The contribution rate of real estate to the economy is also declining, and the market turnover is coming to an end.
- The imbalances of economic regional and structural. The development of different regions in the country is still very different. There is a clear gap between the scale and profitability of different industries. The prevailing industries generally have negative returns such as: automobile, equipment manufacturing, computer/communication/electronics. Due to the different scarcity of land resources in different grades of cities, the land supply trends are significantly different.
The report pointed out that the three major economic problems are systemic problems, SinoeastGalego and at least for the next 2-3 years, they still have to endure the pain caused by low growth. In terms of regional balance, including capital, infrastructure investment, and talent absorption, it is a gradual process; industrial development is expected to be relatively accelerated under the guidance of national policies, including the economic efficiency of real estate, also needs to be improved.